Congratulations, Miami!
According to UBS’s Global Real Estate Bubble Index, the city where I grew up and went to school has snagged the dubious crown of “most likely to crash worldwide,” scoring 1.73 on a model that politely calls anything above 1.5 “high risk.”
It’s the real-estate equivalent of being voted Most Dramatic in a yearbook — flashy, impossible to ignore, and just one awkward moment away from a total meltdown!
UBS (yes, the Union Bank of Switzerland) didn’t pick Miami because it hates palm trees.
The index is a sober cocktail of indicators — price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios, lending standards, construction activity, and real price growth — and Miami piled up red flags like a tourist piles up sunburns.
Over the past 15 years, inflation-adjusted home prices in Miami have climbed faster than any city in the study, and the city’s price-to-rent ratio has now “surpassed even the extremes of the 2006 U.S. housing bubble.”
That’s the kind of boast you don’t want at brunch.
My family bought our Miami Gardens 3/1 corner lot home in 1976 for $28,900. We sold it for $34,000 in the early 1980s. It sold in 2022 for approximately $300,000.
So what’s changed since the boom days?
For starters, “homes now linger unsold for nearly three months — four weeks longer than a year ago,” the report notes.
Sellers who once had bidding wars are now hosting lonely open houses where the only offers are from hungry pigeons.
Add in towering insurance premiums, homeowners association bills that look like luxury subscription plans, and the regulatory clean-up that has forced condo owners to confront decades of deferred maintenance — and suddenly that glossy amenity list looks a lot more like a line item on a municipal audit!
UBS even observes a partial reprieve of pandemic-era frenzy: “Recently, housing inventory has rebounded to near pre-pandemic levels, as slightly lower mortgage rates and significant levels of embedded equity have prompted some homeowners to list their properties,” the report read.
Translation: supply is creeping back in, and some sellers who once refused to let go of their equity are finally saying “for sale.”
The report also notes that "regulatory changes have forced many long-time owners of older condos to address decades of deferred maintenance, resulting in substantial costs."
In short: the math is getting real.
And yet — because economic news refuses to be one-note — UBS offers a curious mix of caution and consolation.
While the bank warns price growth may turn negative in coming months, it does not predict a sudden crash.
Why? Because Miami’s “coastal appeal and favorable tax environment continue to attract newcomers from the US West and Northeast, with real estate prices still well below those in New York and Los Angeles.”
So even as the index flashes alarm, Miami’s sun-and-tax combo acts as a glue that could slow a dramatic free-fall.
UBS lead author Matthias Holzhey put it this way: “Broad exuberance has faded, with average bubble risk in major cities falling for a third straight year.”
In other words: the global housing party is winding down, but Miami, left with its own glitter cannon — now needs someone to sweep it up.
Other cities scored high too — Tokyo (1.59) and Zurich (1.55) joined Miami in the “high risk” bracket — but only Miami seems to have managed the triple threat: pandemic boom, overbuilding, and sticker shock in insurance and HOA fees.
Florida as a whole is feeling the pain, with a reported $109 billion loss in total market value from July 2024 to June 2025.
Ouch. Even the median sale price tells a story: $595,000 in July, down from $640,000 the year before.
So what’s the moral for would-be buyers, besotted ex-pandemic investors, and locals who remember Miami as “affordable-ish”?
Watch the fundamentals: rent and income ratios, construction starts, and how long a listing sits on the market.
Enjoy the sun, yes — but maybe don’t stake your retirement on the idea that palm trees alone will keep prices aloft.
Miami still has sparkle, cosmopolitan charm, and the tax perks that make movers’ hearts flutter.
But sparkle is not the same thing as structural soundness.
For now, the city is equal parts paradise and precarious — glamorous enough to attract crowds, fragile enough to make hedge-fund analysts sip their espressos very slowly.
The Great Housing Slump — Sellers Lower Prices, Buyers Still Say “Meh”
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